I write up big market moves while they're still unfolding: what happened, why, the scenarios from here with odds attached, and the lessons worth keeping. Every page is dated. When the results come in, I come back and score my calls, right or wrong.
The facts, a dated timeline, charts from real price data, and every source linked.
Best, base and worst cases with rough prices and odds, plus the events that will decide between them.
After the deciding event, the page gets a scorecard. The original stays untouched, and the edit history is public.
Marvell set a target of growing revenue from $8.2 billion to $70–90 billion in five years, and the stock rose 5.8%. Four stress tests of the plan, what the share price already assumes, and the checklist I'll use for the next Investor Day.
FICO lost more than half its value in two months while revenue was still growing 26%. The product didn't get worse. The rule that forced lenders selling loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy it started to disappear.